The travel and tourism industry in Canada will recover from the COVID-19 disaster, says a top British Columbia consultant. But it’s still too early to say how long it will take.

Greg Klassen is a partner at Twenty31 Consulting and is the former head of what was then the Canadian Tourism Commission (now Destination Canada). He was at the CTC shortly after 9-11, and he was there for the SARS scare, which did tremendous damage to Canada’s economy and tourism/travel infrastructure.

“We’ve had what I call two and-a-half downturns in the past 25 years or so; 9-11, SARS and the 2008 financial crisis. In each of those years we had a downturn for travel and tourism, but each following year was a record one.”

“Tourism and travel have proven to be very resilient,” Klassen told TravelPulse Canada in a telephone interview from Vancouver this week. “If the past is an indicator of the future, there’s reason for hope.”

Klassen said he thinks regional tourism will be the first thing to come back, as frustrated travellers take baby steps and explore areas near home. That doesn’t help Canadian agents selling trips to Europe, but it might help folks who have tourism and travel operations near the big population centres.

Klassen said it’s critical that anyone who runs a travel or tourism business creates a recovery plan and does their best to understand how their key markets will react once things – and people – start moving again.

“It’s a matter of who will be the most intrepid; who’s chomping at the bit the most. Everyone will be looking for that target group so it’s important to be ready.”

Asked if young people will be the first to jump back on planes, Klassen said he prefers to look at the issue not so much in terms of the age of travellers but their willingness to handle risk.

“It might skew younger,” he said. “Kids who throw their backpacks and head off to Cambodia understand travel can be risky, and they’re willing to incorporate that risk. The risk of COVID-19 seems minimal for younger people, so millennials might be the first to return.”

But he said many millennials are nervous, and not every older traveller is afraid of catching a virus.

One thing that could change after weeks and even months of tele-conferencing is business travel, he said.

“There could be a paradigm shift. Those destinations and operators who look in their rear-view mirrors to guide them to the future are looking the wrong way.”

A drop in business travel would be bad news for major carriers, many of which rely on front-of-the-plane biz folks who pay high fares. And, since those fares help subsidize passengers at the back of the plane, that doesn’t bode well for long-term prices.

That being said, Klassen said he expects deals to start popping up, especially from companies that have been on the edge. A big airline such as, say United or Air Canada, might have deeper pockets. So do the major cruise companies, who have taken a real beating. But smaller firms living hand-to-mouth might feel more desperate and bring in the first big sales.

“If you’re seeking a deal for Thailand or the Caribbean, you’ll find it this year.”

Klassen said airlines that have been operating on paper-thin margins may go bankrupt.

“We’ve already seen some airlines go out of business.”

Klassen said Canada rebounded from SARS and that it can rebound from COVID-19, which is being spread around the world and is not focussed on Toronto or Canada the way SARS was.

“Canada can make it but it will be tough. Destination Canada is very smart. But other destinations are very smart, too.”

One thing in Canada’s favour is that we don’t rely on one or two big operators to bring visitors to the True North, and we’re not reliant on low-cost airlines, which appear to be quite vulnerable right now.

It’s going to take creative thinking and plenty of planning, and things will be different when the world emerges from this shadow. Klassen is convinced the world of travel will recover.

“But it’s critical to understand that plans for 2021 can’t be guided by the strategy for 2019.”