PHOTO: Vancouver. (Photo courtesy of Thinkstock)

The Conference Board of Canada's has released its Metropolitan Outlook: Winter 2016, a yearly analysis of the economic growth of 28 Canadian census metropolitan areas (CMAs). In general, the results revealed few surprises: decreased oil prices are wreaking havoc in some cities while the weakened loonie and strong U.S. economy are creating opportunities in other metropolitan areas.

According to the report, Vancouver (3.3 per cent), Halifax (2.9 per cent) and Toronto (2.8 per cent) are expected to see the largest economic growth this year. Not necessarily surprising, but still worth mentioning, the cities anticipating the strongest growth in GDP will see tourism play a key role in that growth.

Highlights

Vancouver: In 2016, Vancouver will be Canada’s fastest-growing metropolitan economy with a forecasted real GDP growth of 3.3 per cent, according to the study. This growth is a continuation of the city’s successful 2015, when it realized an economic growth of 4 per cent. Nearby communities will also see an increase in GDP, including . Abbotsford-Mission (2.8 per cent) and Victoria (2.3 per cent.)

In Vancouver, the fastest growing sectors this year will be construction, manufacturing, and transportation and warehousing. In this case, the construction sector includes a number of large-scale tourism industry projects, including the Trump International Hotel and Tower and the expansion of the Vancouver International Airport.

The weakened loonie is also expected to stimulate tourism activity, it is is anticipated that 2016 will be one of Vancouver’s busiest cruise ship seasons to date.

Toronto: Toronto should be another high point for the Canadian economy in 2016. The city’s GDP is expected to grow by 2.8 per cent, making it the third-fastest growing metropolitan economy in Canada. The city’s population boom should help fuel sectors such as construction, wholesale and retail trade, and personal service, but tourism indicators are also very strong due to the lower Canadian dollar and the healthy U.S. economy.

Montréal/Québec City: Montréal can expect an economic growth of 2.3 per cent this year driven by manufacturing and construction, while Québec should expect to see its GDP grow by 2 per cent. Here, again, the Canadian dollar and the U.S. economy are playing a major role in boosting manufacturing and the tourism sector. The growth in tourism should further impact the city’s accommodation, food services and retail trade industries.

Atlantic Canada: Bolstered largely by growth in the manufacturing sector—in particular Irving Shipbuilding’s $3.5 billion contract with the Royal Canadian Navy—Halifax is expected to realize a growth in GDP of 2.9 per cent.

“Driven by a thriving manufacturing sector and strong construction activity, Halifax is expected to be among the country’s growth leaders in 2016, behind only Vancouver,” said Alan Arcand, associate director, Centre for Municipal Studies, The Conference Board of Canada. 

The construction industry in Halifax is expected to see a growth of 7.3 per cent this year, and major construction projects includie the Nova Centre, which will house the city’s convention centre and a hotel tower. Other large-scale construction projects include the multimillion dollar upgrade to Pratt and Whitney’s engine blade manufacturing facility near the Halifax airport.

For more information, view the complete Metropolitan Outlook: Winter 2016 study. 

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