Tourism and travel types aiming to increase Canadian visits to the U.S. appear to have their work cut out for them.

A new survey finds that Canadian interest in visiting the U.S. is falling steadily, and that the news will only get worse in the next couple years.

The study, conducted by GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company, predicts that the number of outbound travellers heading to the US from Canada wiill drop by nearly 28% between 2013 and 2022.

The study says the US drew 23.3 million Canadians in 2013. But it said that number could drop to 14.9 million by 2022, a compound annual decrease of 4.8%.

Brand USA, which promotes the US as a tourism destination around the world, on Tuesday announced that tourism/travel industry veteran Colin Skerritt is the company’s new regional director in Canada. The US obviously hopes to increase the number of Canadians heading south, but the new report, titled “Tourism Source Market Insight: Canada” suggests that could be an uphill battle.

The report blames Canadians’ lack of interest in the US on a variety of factors, including President Donald Trump, a reluctance to undertake repeat visits and the increase of cheap flights to Mexico.

“The US has long been and still is the most popular destination for Canadians,” said Ralph Hollister, Travel and Tourism Associate Analyst at GlobalData. “Affordability and accessibility is of great importance to them, and the US provides this in abundance. However, destinations which can provide cheap flights such as Mexico and low-cost, novel experiences, such as India, are experiencing high growth in Canadian visitor numbers as millennials, aged 22-36, and baby boomers, aged 55-75, have realized their money can get them further afield.

From 2013 to 2018, visitation numbers from Canada to the US decreased at a compound annual rate of 4.1%, from 23.3 million to 18.9 million. This negative growth indicated the start of a change in demand from Canadian tourists. The Canadian economy entered a recession in 2015 and GDP fell by an annualised rate of 0.5% between April and June, which has not benefitted outbound tourism to the US. From 2018 to 2022, negative growth will continue at a compound annual rate of -5.7%, even though the economy in Canada has improved in recent years, GlobalData said.

External political factors such as the Trump presidency have further deterred Canadians from travelling to the US, the report said.

It’s not just the US that is suffering from slow Canadian growth. Hollister said Canada is one of the slowest growing markets for outbound tourism out of all Group of Seven countries, which is a trend that international destinations attempting to attract Canadian tourism need to be mindful of.

“Canada’s economy has been experiencing improved growth in recent years compared to countries with a higher total GDP in the G-7 group. But this has not encouraged a large increase in Canadians taking international vacations, mainly being due to the perceived cost of international travel.”

That's potentially valuable information for travel agents selling Canadians on trips to destinations around the world, not just in the U.S.

Currently 33% of Canadians have no holiday plans, according to GlobalData. This statistic is concerning for both domestic and international destinations popular with Canadian tourists such as the US. Furthermore, 23% of Canadians now typically take city breaks, which is a growing share of the source market.

Hollister said cities such as Denver and Dallas should be visibly promoted to Canadian tourists as new or different aspects of the American tourism product.