Aeroplan and Air Canada Roller Coaster Ride Continues

And you thought the rides at the Canadian National Exhibition made you dizzy.

Tuesday morning’s early report that a consortium led by Air Canada will likely be buying Aeroplan after all came from out of the blue and marks yet another chapter in the ongoing Aeroplan saga.

On paper, the news that Aimia, Aeroplan’s parent company, has agreed to a sweetened takeover bid by Air Canada, TD, CIBC and VISA is a good one. Canadians who’ve been using Aeroplan likely feel good about having the nation’s largest airline, and one that offers flights across the country and around the world, back in the Aeroplan fold. Tuesday’s announced deal still needs to be approved by Aimia shareholders, but company officials agreed to the proposal by the Air Canada consortium and it seems unlikely that this deal will get rejected. So, on paper, it looks good for both Aeroplan and for Air Canada.

"We are pleased to see that an agreement in principle has been reached as Aeroplan members can continue to earn and redeem with confidence," Air Canada's CEO Calin Rovinescu said of the agreement. "This transaction, if completed, should produce the best outcome for all stakeholders, including Aeroplan members, as it would allow for a smooth transition to Air Canada's new loyalty program launching in 2020, safeguarding their miles and providing convenience and value for millions of Canadians."

That sounds positive. But for Canadians or others who might be looking forward to having Transat, Flair and Porter Airlines as part of Aeroplan, a note of caution is probably wise, as it’s not certain that plans to add those three companies will indeed take place.

Here’s a bit of background to help explain.

Air Canada a couple years ago said it would leave Aeroplan and form its own rewards company; a major blow for Aeroplan. Then, in late July of this year, Air Canada and its fellow consortium members surprised many observers by making a bid for Aeroplan, offering Aimia $250 million and saying it would assume the roughly $1.9 billion in outstanding reward miles that have yet to be redeemed.

Aimia rejected the deal as insulting and inadequate, leaving Air Canada hanging. Aimia/Aeroplan then announced it had signed deals with Porter Airlines, Air Transat and Flair. Those are pretty good, but they weren’t nearly as complete a package as Air Canada offered in terms of world routes.

It looked like those might be done deals. But then on Tuesday (Aug. 21) came word that the Air Canada group had upped its cash offer to $450 million, as well as keeping their offer to assume the outstanding reward miles. That offer was lower than some Aimia officials had suggested was reasonable, but company officials agreed to the consortium's new price.

Mittleman Brothers, which holds a 17.6-per-cent stake in Aimia, defended the investment firm’s “acquiescence” in the deal, calling it “the best available outcome for all Aimia stakeholders.”

The big question many folks are asking now is “What happens to the Transat, Porter, Flair agreements?”

There aren’t any clear answers right now. But here are some hints.

In a note to TravelPulse Canada, Air Transat officials noted that Chief Distribution Officer Joseph Adamo noted earlier this month that the Transat deal with Aimia/Aeropaln was “an agreement in principle.”

I’m not a lawyer, but to me that sounds like a tremendously important distinction. Agreements can be tough to undo, but an agreement in principle should, in theory, be much easier to amend or adjust. Or eliminate.

“From the start of talks, we were well aware that this (Air Canada climbing back into the drivers’ seat) could be the eventual outcome,’’ Adamo said. That’s why we planned to reach a final agreement with Aimia at a later date. We are discussing next steps with Aimia.”

Again, it appears the Transat deal with Aeroplan was not final. Which suggests it could change. Here's what Porter had to say.

“Porter Airlines is aware that Aimia has reached a preliminary agreement with the consortium led by Air Canada to acquire the Aeroplan loyalty program,” Michael Deluce, executive vice president and chief commercial officer of Porter Airlines, said in a statement provided to TravelPulse Canada. “Porter recognized from the outset that Aeroplan may be purchased prior to its agreement taking effect in July 2020. If the (Air Canada) consortium enters into a final definitive agreement with Aimia, we will then be in a position to comment on the impact to Porter’s agreement at that time.”

A vote on the Air Canada consortium offer should take place this fall.

Aeroplan put out a statement and provided a link to a question and answer page, which had some useful information but left many questions unanswered.

Here’s what Aimia officials said about the situation: “A deal with the consortium was contemplated in the context of the recently announced deals with Porter, Flair and Air Transat and they obviously were only expected to come into play in 2020. Pending a definitive agreement with Air Canada and the consortium, it is business as usual and not appropriate to comment further on these.”

Perfectly clear, right? No, not at all. But that’s where we stand today.

On top of that uncertainty is the fact that Air Canada still says it will be setting up its own loyalty program in 2020. It’s not clear if miles accumulated under Aeroplan will be transferred to the new Air Canada program, and, if so, at what cost (if any). It’s also not clear how many miles the new Air Canada plan will require for a ticket. It could be the same as Aeroplan (usually 25,000 miles for a round-trip flight in North America). But it might not.

Round and round and round she goes …..